Is Bitcoin's time in the sun finally here? A seasoned market analyst has identified a technical pattern that could indicate a significant shift for Bitcoin, following its underperformance against gold for several months. This development comes at a time when traders are questioning the long-term viability of Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, given gold's recent surge in value.
The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has been on a downward trend, dropping from 32 on October 5th to approximately 20 today, a decline of over 37%. This means that one Bitcoin could buy 32 ounces of gold in early October, but now it can only purchase around 20 ounces. The ratio's slide has accelerated since gold's rally and Bitcoin's price slipped below key levels.
Daily readings suggest a possible change in momentum. On November 21st, the BTC/GOLD pair hit a low of 20, and the RSI stood at 21.30. A lower low near December 1st was accompanied by a higher RSI low of 26.83. Then, another trough at 19 on December 26th coincided with a higher RSI low of 32.21. This is a valid bullish divergence on the daily timeframe for BTCUSD vs. Gold.
Michaël van de Poppe has called this pattern a "strong" bullish divergence on the daily chart, which traders watch for signs of easing selling pressure even as prices make new lows. Technical signals show cooling selling pressure, and the weekly chart adds weight to this signal. The weekly RSI for the BTC/GOLD pair has sunk to about 31.85 at press time, a level last seen during the November 2022 sell-off tied to the FTX collapse, marking a bottom in that cycle.
Reports also link similar RSI lows to the bottoms seen in 2015 and 2018. Taken together, the daily divergence and the low weekly RSI make a stronger case that the downtrend may be losing steam, though nothing is guaranteed. Market sentiment is divided among investors.
Gold's rally has been dramatic, with reports showing it surged by over 70% in 2025 while Bitcoin fell by 7% over the year in some measures. At press time, Bitcoin trades at $87,750, down 4.8% year-to-date. The breakdown in the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio and Bitcoin's continued weakness below $100,000 have prompted fresh questions about the "digital gold" story as bullion posts historic gains.
Short-term money appears to favor gold for capital protection. Many traders are treating the metal as a shelter while it climbs to new highs. Long-term holders, however, still point to Bitcoin's potential for big upside once risk appetite returns. According to market watchers, the near-term outlook hinges on whether the BTC/GOLD ratio and price action deliver follow-through above key levels. Until that happens, signals will remain tentative. But here's where it gets controversial... What do you think? Will Bitcoin's comeback be short-lived, or is it setting the stage for a long-term resurgence? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
