The Crude Oil (CL) futures market is a fascinating arena, especially when it comes to predicting the settlement price on April 8, 2026. The current market dynamics are complex, with a multitude of factors influencing the price of WTI crude oil. The market is currently trading near $96 per barrel, having plunged over 14% on April 7 due to optimism over a potential two-week ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict, including safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. This rapid unwind of the geopolitical risk premium follows a multi-week surge driven by military escalations and supply disruption fears, with prices briefly touching $117 intraday. Supporting bearish pressures include OPEC+ output hikes starting this month and the prior week's EIA-reported 5.5 million barrel crude stock build to near three-year highs. Today's EIA inventory release for the week ending April 4 could further influence settlement positioning as markets price in receding supply risks.
The market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on April 8, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the relevant day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month.
The current frontrunner for the settlement price is the range of $90–$100, with a 91% chance, followed by $80–$90 at 6%. These odds reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen, as traders buy and sell shares based on their predictions. The market is dynamic, and these probabilities shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information.
However, it's important to note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price, and CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website, specifically the daily 'Settlement' price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
In the meantime, traders can participate in the prediction market on Polymarket, where they buy and sell shares based on their beliefs about the settlement price. The current leading outcome is $90–$100 at 91%, followed by $80–$90 at 6%. These prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities, and shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution. This market is an opportunity for traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals, and it's an early market, so bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.
